What are the prospects for Polish President Andrzej Duda?

By Aleks Szczerbiak

Poland’s right-wing president was already attempting to turn out to be extra assertive and impartial when the Russian invasion of Ukraine gave him a chance to carve out a brand new function as a key regional participant and unifying power in home politics. However he stays a loyal, if considerably extra autonomous, member of the governing camp, and far of the time is performing intuitively relatively than having a coherent plan for remodelling the presidency.

Missing a defining idea

Beforehand, the opposition harshly criticised President Andrzej Duda – who’s backed by the right-wing Regulation and Justice (PiS) grouping, Poland’s ruling occasion since autumn 2015 – for his alleged passivity. They accused him of being marginalised in key state coverage selections and easily performing as the federal government’s “notary”.

Apart from a number of uncommon events, corresponding to in July 2017, when he vetoed two of the federal government’s flagship judicial reform legal guidelines,  Duda had not likely made any severe makes an attempt to carve out an impartial function for himself.

In some ways, this was not shocking. The president’s most important constitutional energy was a adverse one: a legislative veto that requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority (which PiS lacks) to overturn.

Duda largely agreed with the ruling occasion’s critique of the alleged shortcomings of the post-communist state and its core establishments and was elected on the identical governing programme, so it might have been uncommon if he had blocked key parts of it. His disagreements have been usually over how radical reforms ought to be and the most effective technique of reaching them.

Furthermore, most Poles appeared to usually settle for Duda’s mannequin of the presidency; in a carefully fought contest he was re-elected for a second time period in July 2020.

Extra broadly, nonetheless, Duda’s critics argued that his presidency lacked a transparent defining idea and that he had didn’t develop the robust mental and political help base required to hold ahead impartial initiatives, preferring to encompass himself with technocrats relatively than skilled operators.

Extra assertive and impartial

Initially, after his re-election Duda as soon as once more stored a low profile and confined himself to presidential routine. Nonetheless, even earlier than the Russian invasion he was already making efforts to rebuild his picture and turn out to be a extra assertive and impartial political determine.

For instance, final December Duda vetoed a controversial government-backed media possession legislation. A key driver of this was his want to enhance Poland’s hitherto relatively frosty relations with the US Biden administration at a time when the prospect of Russian aggression was already rising tensions throughout the area.

The USA felt that the media reforms threatened the business pursuits of American-owned Polish TVN broadcaster, which takes a strongly anti-PiS editorial line.

Each the president and PiS loved very robust ties with Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump, whom they got here to see as a conservative ideological soulmate. Through the 2020 US election, Biden talked about Poland as a rustic the place democracy was endangered, and Duda initially delayed acknowledging him as the brand new president till the outcomes have been formally ratified.

Nonetheless, for a while Duda’s workers has been working onerous to rebuild hyperlinks with Washington. Furthermore, to additional strengthen Poland’s ties with the Western worldwide neighborhood, Duda additionally made a concerted try and de-escalate PiS’s ongoing dispute with the EU political institution over the federal government’s controversial judicial reforms.

The EU establishments agreed with Poland’s authorized institution and most opposition events that the reforms undermined the rule of legislation and threatened the important thing democratic precept of the constitutional separation of powers.

For its half, PiS rejected the opposition’s critique, arguing that, following Poland’s flawed transition to democracy in 1989, the judiciary, like many key Polish establishments, was expropriated by and represented the pursuits of an especially well-entrenched, and infrequently deeply corrupt, post-communist elite.

Nonetheless, the European Fee withheld the primary tranche of billions of euros because of Poland from the union’s coronavirus restoration fund till Warsaw carried out a July 2021 EU Courtroom of Justice ruling that it disband a newly created supreme courtroom disciplinary chamber.

In February, Duda submitted a draft legislation reforming the chamber which he hoped would meet the fee’s considerations. Nonetheless, the president’s draft is at the moment slowed down in a parliamentary committee because of opposition from United Poland (Solidarna Polska), PiS’s junior governing associate led by justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro, on whom it depends for its legislative majority.

Ziobro, who has launched most of the authorities’s most controversial insurance policies together with the judicial reforms, has been staking out a sequence of hard-line right-wing conservative coverage positions and criticising the federal government for being excessively compromising and ideologically timid.

A key regional participant

The Russian invasion has additionally offered Duda with a chance to carve out a task for himself as a key regional participant. Poland’s geographical location as an important frontline state, along with the truth that it’s NATO’s largest member and prime defence spender within the area, imply that Warsaw has performed a pivotal diplomatic and navy function within the alliance’s safety relationship with Moscow.

Poland has additionally been one of many predominant hubs for channeling navy and humanitarian support to Ukraine, and prime vacation spot for refugees fleeing from the battle with greater than 3 million individuals crossing its jap border.

Though overseas and defence coverage lie primarily inside the authorities’s area, Duda seems snug in these fields and conscious that the structure offers him numerous broad prerogatives (he’s, for instance, commander-in-chief of the armed forces) along with an off-the-cuff oversight and co-ordinating function.

For a very long time, Duda and PiS warned concerning the worldwide menace posed by what they noticed as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s neo-imperialist de-stabilisation of the area. Since Russia’s invasion, Poland has been considered one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies and on the forefront of efforts to influence the Western worldwide neighborhood to develop a strong response and be certain that sanctions on Moscow are maintained and prolonged.

Duda can be one of many governing camp’s most constantly pro-Ukraine leaders and has developed a detailed private relationship along with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky.

Furthermore, following Duda’s earlier efforts, Warsaw has turn out to be Washington’s most necessary safety associate within the area because the Biden administration has prioritised defence and safety points and put its political variations with PiS firmly on the back-burner; exemplified by the US president’s excessive profile March go to to Poland.

For the reason that battle broke out, Duda has additionally made a concerted effort to behave as a unifying power in home politics. In March, for instance, he vetoed a controversial training reform legislation which the federal government stated was designed to stop radical left-wing organisations from having access to colleges however the opposition argued may have been used to ban any groupings which didn’t conform to PiS’s socially conservative values.

Duda justified his veto on the grounds that, though he personally supported most of the legislation’s provisions, Poland wanted to keep away from polarising political disputes presently.

Trying to the long run

The truth that that is Duda’s last presidential time period and that he doesn’t want to fret about re-election offers him a lot better room for manoeuvre. On this sense, though the Ukrainian battle offered him with a historic alternative to redefine his presidency, it merely accelerated an already current course of.

Partially, Duda’s elevated diplomatic exercise has made him extra aware of the worldwide context and impacts of sure home political actions, corresponding to the federal government’s media reform legislation. To some extent he’s additionally excited about his future legacy and prospects past the presidency.

Duda seems to have turn out to be satisfied that historical past will choose his presidency on the function that he performs within the present disaster, and that he’s thus obliged to assist keep no less than a minimal stage of nationwide political unity and consensus. Duda additionally is aware of that with the intention to safe a senior worldwide submit sooner or later he’ll want the help, or no less than acquiescence, of the USA.

By way of Polish home politics, Duda’s relations with PiS chief Jarosław Kaczyński stay very uneasy. Kaczyński – who, though he’s solely deputy prime minister, workouts a strong affect in figuring out the federal government’s programmatic and strategic priorities – has by no means forgiven the president for his 2017 veto of the judicial reforms (regardless that the subsequently accredited laws was very near the unique proposals).

Nonetheless, because the worldwide scenario has constructed up Duda’s standing, it has turn out to be tougher for the PiS chief to disregard him. Furthermore, on condition that Kaczyński is anticipated to face down as occasion chief within the subsequent parliament, Duda and different key figures within the governing camp are already positioning themselves for future management eventualities.

The president, due to this fact, has to claim his independence however in methods that may broaden his affect inside, relatively than alienate, the ruling occasion. In actual fact, Duda stays each emotionally and intellectually dedicated to key parts of PiS’s radical state reform programme.

So though, for instance, he seems ready to make fairly far-reaching concessions with the intention to attain a compromise with Brussels, because the opposition has identified, his draft legislation to reform the supreme courtroom disciplinary system doesn’t abandon the core precept on the coronary heart of PiS’s judicial reform programme: that giving elected politicians a better say in figuring out the composition of the important thing our bodies that oversee the Polish courts is each crucial and in step with practices in different Western democracies.

In different phrases, Duda stays, in essence, a loyal member of the governing camp; albeit a considerably extra autonomous one.

Duda’s relations with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki are additionally felt to have improved for the reason that outbreak of the Ukrainian battle. The 2 politicians haven’t at all times loved the closest of ties however, as the important thing determine in PiS’s “modernising-technocratic” wing, Morawiecki is instinctively sympathetic to a number of the president’s pivots to the political centre.

Certainly, some commentators have speculated that Duda and PiS moderates may even be attempting to reconfigure the governing camp and dealer a brand new ruling coalition.

The target right here, it’s argued, could be draw in additional centrist political groupings such because the agrarian Polish Individuals’s Celebration (PSL), both within the present parliament to jettison United Poland, or after the subsequent election if (as appears possible) PiS loses its outright majority and must dealer a take care of the radical-right Confederation (Konfederacja) to stay in workplace.

Nonetheless, Duda has by no means beforehand proven any indicators that he’s focused on, or able to, such political manoeuvring, so there could also be little level looking for such hidden subtexts in his current actions.

Instinct relatively than a coherent plan?

Most Poles seem to approve of the truth that, step-by-step, Duda is changing into an more and more autonomous and important actor on the political scene. In keeping with an April survey performed by the IBRiS company for the Rzeczpospolita newspaper, 76% of respondents, together with 74% of opposition supporters, evaluated his exercise for the reason that outbreak of the battle positively.

Nonetheless, arguably, relatively than having a coherent and thought-through longterm plan for remodelling his presidency, a lot of the time Duda is solely reacting intuitively to the modified political circumstances and, with the outbreak (and earlier menace) of a battle on Poland’s jap border, felt obliged to turn out to be extra assertive and proactive.

Certainly, the entire political scenario may change radically for Duda if he has to “cohabit” with a authorities led by the present opposition events after the subsequent parliamentary election, scheduled for autumn 2023, till his time period of workplace ends in summer time 2025. How Duda’s presidency evolves over the subsequent few months will present some crucial pointers as to how this potential future relationship might develop.

Most important picture credit score: Adam Guz/KPRM (beneath CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)