Ukrainian refugees fill gaps in Polish labour market however danger getting caught in low-skilled jobs

By Anna Rzhevkina

“If we depend the cash they spend and the taxes they pay, I might enterprise to say that not solely does Poland not lose out, however the Ukrainians are working for Poland,” mentioned Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on the current World Financial Discussion board in Davos.

Whereas the remarks considerably contradict Morawiecki’s earlier claims that Poland wants funds from the European Union to assist it help refugees, they level to an optimism, shared by some economists, that the mass arrival of Ukrainian refugees – round 1.5 million to 2 million of whom are at present estimated to be in Poland – can present a lift to the nation’s labour market.

Many industries in Poland are desperately in want of that labour. Current years have seen stable financial progress and excessive international investments because of the nation’s enticing location and comparatively low labour prices. In April this 12 months, unemployment stood at 5.2%, decrease than earlier than the pandemic.

The quick restoration of the financial system from the influence of Covid has elevated employees shortages in industries starting from development and catering to healthcare and training.

In line with the 2022 version of the Occupational Barometer, a nationwide short-term forecast of the state of affairs in varied professions, there are 30 occupations in Poland for which employers will wrestle to seek out certified professionals.

In an effort to plug these gaps, the federal government has rushed to combine refugees from Ukraine, together with by stress-free necessities to enter the labour market, for instance suspending the necessity to get hold of a piece allow and making it simpler for sure {qualifications} to be recognised.

The inflow of refugees might completely add as much as 440,000 employees and create extra GDP progress of 4% by 2050, in keeping with Mateusz City of Oxford Economics, an advisory agency.

For the reason that begin of the battle, over a million Ukrainians have obtained Polish ID numbers, indicating they’re prone to keep in Poland for an extended time. Of those, round 48% are aged beneath 18, whereas an additional 45% are girls of working age, in keeping with authorities information.

In line with Deloitte, Poland prevented a pricey mistake by opening the labour market and letting probably the most motivated folks discover a job right away. About 160,000 Ukrainians have already discovered a job – a excessive quantity contemplating that almost all refugees are girls with youngsters, Piotr Lewandowski of the Institute for Structural Analysis instructed Notes from Poland.

Nevertheless, the battle in Ukraine has additionally resulted in an outflow of some Ukrainian employees who had been beforehand in Poland, particularly males who’ve returned to defend their homeland. This has deepened the deficit in sure industries that had been already affected by labour shortages and can’t simply fill them with feminine staff.

The impact of the outflow is notable primarily in manufacturing, development, logistics, and transport, which collectively accounted for 66% of all work permits for foreigners issued in 2021, Robert Pater and Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak, analysts from the Bureau of Funding and Financial Cycles (BIEC), instructed Notes from Poland.

Ukrainians made up round 11% of development employees and 13% in transport earlier than the battle, in keeping with estimates by BNP Paribas financial institution.

A mismatch between abilities and jobs

The inflow of Ukrainians will assist fill the staffing gaps in industries dominated by girls, says Tomasz Dudek, managing director of OTTO Work Pressure Central Europe. However the variety of presents for ladies, particularly these with low {qualifications}, is decrease than the demand for them. Alternatively, there are huge employees shortages in occupations that require higher bodily power or particular {qualifications}, he explains.

Though the refugees have entry to childcare, advantages and training in Poland, many Ukrainian girls are on the lookout for part-time roles to mix work and parental care, BIEC information present.

However circumstances for the gradual integration of refugees into Polish society are beneficial. Entry to the Good Begin programme, beneath which all college students obtain a one-off 300 zloty fee annually, and nursery funding can have a optimistic influence on the labour market, discovered BIEC analysts. As well as, the refugees are eligible for baby advantages of 500 zloty per baby monthly.

To additional pace up this course of, in Might laws was handed that may create a nationwide platform to match Ukrainian staff with potential employers. Customers will entry the platform with their nationwide ID quantity, and the algorithm will match their {qualifications} with job adverts.

Lewandowski, nonetheless, says that extra ought to have already got been carried out to clarify the job search course of to new arrivals in Poland. “There ought to be some extra efforts in Ukrainian, comparable to TV advertisements to offer data on the way to discover a job,” he argues.

The sectors that would profit most from the influx of Ukrainians are healthcare (with Poland having the EU’s lowest variety of medical doctors in relation to inhabitants), social care, tourism, hospitality and the sweetness business, in keeping with BIEC.

Amongst job presents being translated into Ukrainian by public employment places of work, the commonest are for care employees, well being professionals and customer support employees, finds BIEC. On on-line job boards, the commonest adverts marked as being for Ukrainians are for ICT specialists, gross sales employees and enterprise and administration professionals.

Refugees are additionally prone to apply for low-qualified and seasonal jobs to earn some revenue shortly. In agriculture, hiring Ukrainian employees can lower labour prices and partially compensate the rise in gas and fertiliser costs, say analysts.

Unfulfilled potential

From the financial perspective, refugees are coming to Poland at a lucky time. Many companies are on the lookout for employees, and the home inhabitants is ageing, additional deepening the deficit within the labour market. In these circumstances, Ukrainians are prone to discover a job comparatively shortly. However the problem is the potential mismatch between abilities and jobs.

“To date, about 50% of Ukrainians who’ve began working are doing quite simple jobs,” says Lewandowski. The federal government has not collected information on the training or earlier occupation of refugees, making it tough to gauge whether or not individuals are working under their {qualifications}.

There’s a danger that many Ukrainians will hold performing easy jobs as a result of they should earn a dwelling, which is inefficient in the long term. As well as, by doing low-qualified work, they’re unlikely to realize new abilities that might be helpful for rebuilding their nation if and after they return house, Lewandowski warns.

Language might be one other barrier to shifting to better-paid jobs. Regardless of the similarities between Polish and Ukrainian, studying to speak fluently nonetheless takes time.

Lastly, there are issues concerning the honest therapy of migrants, who typically work on non permanent contracts and even fully off the books. Up to now, exploitation of labour has been an issue, particularly in sectors like development and agriculture. However the angle in direction of refugees could also be completely different.

“I feel for some time there might be a social norm that hopefully prevents folks from exploiting refugees,” says Lewandowski. Nevertheless, as soon as the wave of goodwill subsides, working circumstances could change into a difficulty.

In a current data marketing campaign, the Polish authorities reminded Ukrainians that they need to not conform to tackle work with out signing a contract and may be certain that they totally perceive what they’re signing.

With the labour market struggling employees shortages, discovering work will not be an enormous problem, however the query is to what extent refugees will be capable to use their experience {and professional} expertise quite than losing their potential in low-skilled jobs.

Krzysztof Inglot, founding father of recruitment agency Personnel Service, says that to facilitate the combination of Ukrainians into the labour market there’s a want for systematic help, comparable to language programs, data campaigns about accessible jobs, retraining programmes, and a database with refugees’ competences.

“Amongst refugees, there’s a massive proportion of people that have a diploma and are, for instance, nurses, medical doctors, or programmers. It is a potential that ought to be used,” he says.

Important picture credit score: Jakub Porzycki / Agencja Wyborcza.pl