Retail gross sales rose 33.4% year-on-year in Poland in April, the very best development fee ever recorded by Statistics Poland (GUS), a state company. The inflow of tens of millions of refugees from Ukraine helped push up spending, whereas rampant inflation additionally had an influence on the determine, which is calculated at present costs.
The brand new determine surpassed the earlier document of twenty-two.7% set final 12 months, additionally in April, which was itself because of the extraordinarily low base impact of a dip in gross sales brought on by the powerful early lockdown imposed in spring 2020.
Footfall and turnover at purchasing centres in Poland have now surpassed pre-pandemic ranges.
Whereas the figures partly point out a return to pre-Covid purchasing habits, in addition they mirror the arrival of tens of millions of refugees from Ukraine https://t.co/kEdjfMIo4f
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) May 20, 2022
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, round 3.5 million individuals have crossed the border into Poland. It’s estimated that between 1.5 and a couple of million of them stay within the nation.
“Meals gross sales remained excessive [in April], which we affiliate largely with spending by (and for) refugees,” mentioned analysts from mBank. They famous that April spending was boosted not solely by the Easter celebrations of the Catholic majority round 17 April, but in addition by many Ukrainians every week later, in accordance with the Orthodox calendar.
Excessive gross sales of clothes and footwear can also be partly attributed to consumption by refugees, who typically arrived with few possessions, be aware analysts, as is spending on furnishings, family home equipment and electronics to suit out lodging for the brand new arrivals.
Inflow of Ukrainian refugees stokes housing scarcity in Poland
In contrast, gasoline gross sales declined, primarily because of excessive oil costs brought on by post-pandemic provide chain disruptions in addition to the battle in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, as a result of the 33.4% retail gross sales development determine is calculated at present costs, it was pushed up considerably by inflation, which is at its highest stage because the late Nineteen Nineties, hitting 12.4% in April.
That’s the reason many economists deal with the studying at fixed costs, however that determine nonetheless surpassed expectations with a 19% enhance year-on-year in April.
Bardzo dobre dane o sprzedaży detalicznej (+19% r/r, tu byliśmy zdecydowanie zbyt dużymi pesymistami) i słabe dane z budowlanki (+9,3% r/r tu byliśmy zbyt małymi pesymistami). pic.twitter.com/aHsPIwSLyN
— mBank Analysis (@mbank_research) May 23, 2022
Essential picture credit score: Picture by Michael Weidemann on Unsplash
Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She beforehand labored for Reuters.